Can you predict a new stadium's psychological effects on its market?

Remarkably romantic-looking McCoy Stadium, current home of the Pawtucket Red Sox.

Remarkably romantic-looking McCoy Stadium, current home of the Pawtucket Red Sox.

Adapted from Robert Whitcomb's "Digital Diary,'' in GoLocal24.com

Larry Lucchino, chairman of the Pawtucket Red Sox, sent me an article from MLB.com the other week in response to my skepticism that baseball will continue to be popular enough to financially justify the public’s investment in a new baseball stadium in Pawtucket over the next 30 years. The first part of the article, which you can read by hitting this link, http://m.mlb.com/news/article/230956600/baseball-softball-most-participated-team-sport/:

“NEW YORK -- Baseball and softball had nearly 25 million combined participants last year, more than any team sport in the United States, Major League Baseball announced during its quarterly Owners Meetings on Thursday {May 18}.

“The finding came from an annual report produced by the Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA), which also showed a notable increase in participation for youth baseball and softball.

“’Those numbers are really good news for us,’ Commissioner Rob Manfred said after the meetings adjourned. ‘We feel they're related to the investment baseball has been making through the Play Ball initiative. And, in fairness, even before that, in terms of the Major League Academies and the RBI (Reviving Baseball in the Inner Cities) that began under Commissioner Bud Selig, improvements in youth participation in baseball are unique among team sports.

"It's not a trend that we're seeing with other team sports."

That reminds me of a central question in considering whether to put taxpayer money into stadiums to be used by for-profit sports teams owned by very rich people: Does having such a facility substantially boost the energy and optimism – the “animal spirits’’ – of a region and in doing so make it more economically and socially dynamic? Has gritty, high-crime Baltimore, for example, become a lot better with the Orioles’ beautiful Camden Yards stadium?

And if the Pawtucket Red Sox organization doesn't get the financial deal it wants from the State of Rhode Island, where else could it go in New England?